One and a Half Technicals

The Big Game

UM and OSU are the top two teams in the Big Ten. Let’s look at my 3-4-5 Big Ten teams.* Here are the OSU-UM scores against these common opponents.

At Michigan State: UM 28-24, OSU 24-17
At Wisconsin: OSU 38-17
Vs. Wisconsin: UM 21-37
At Illinois: UM 27-17
Vs. Illinois: OSU 21-28

That’s pretty even. It’s dead even at 2-1 for both teams.

UM’s largest points allowed was at home to Wisconsin (38-17 loss).
OSU’s defense gave up the most points at home to Illinois (28-21) loss.
EDGE: OSU

The cumulative scores against these three are OSU 87-67, UM 76-78.
The average scores for these six games are OSU 28-21, UM 25-26.
OSU outscored these opponents by an average of 7. Michigan underscored them by about 1 point.
EDGE: OSU (see more on playing at Wisconsin)

OSU edges out Michigan as a road winner by virtue of a 21 point win against Wisconsin at Camp Randall.**
EDGE 1: PUSH (UM home game)
EDGE 2: OSU (they didn’t lose 32-34 to Appalachian or 39-7 to Oregon at home)

OSU’s 38 points at Wisconsin beats any road conference score put up by UM. UM laid 48 on Purdue but (as we like to say) Purdue stinks. Ross-Ade stadium ain’t Camp Randall either. Oh, giving up 21 to Purdue is nothing to brag about.

Since these two are the best in the conference, we have to adjust some of these numbers.
Let’s reduce the scoring against by 20% because of who these teams are. Let’s leave the points scored alone for the same reason. Here’s what we get:

OSU 28-17, UM 25-21. I haven’t looked but I’ll bet the spread is around OSU -3.

Now let’s adjust for this: During the first quarter, every skill position player is going to take a hit he’ll remember for the rest of his life. Most everybody else will find out who they are playing right away as well.

Then we have to adjust for this: Both teams will run some fly patterns to loosen things up. However, expect both teams to run the ball with anger most of the day. Let’s bring the scoring down a little more:

Here’s my call: OSU 23-17.
Tressel had a bad coaching day last week. Two in a row isn’t likely and none of the current UM players have played in a winner against the Buckeyes.

If you are looking at the intangibles, forget that Carr’s last game crap. The Wolverines are already PO’d about the season. I don’t see Carr pulling a Win One for Me in the locker room anyway. The Buckeyes are near lethal after the BCS loss and the Illinois debacle. Look for both teams to take it out on each other.

Chevy Players of the Game:
OSU – Todd Boeckman (there will be at least one big play)
UM – Mike Hart (he’ll get the ball at least 30 times)

*Minnesota is out because nothing they did in 2007 resembled football. Penn State is out because they aren’t good enough to matter. UM, however, only put 14 points on the Lions. If they both played any of the other four teams, who cares. They all stink.
**SEC fans, think swamp only cold with metal objects flying at you.